Taliban Advance on Islamabad, Nuclear Facilities

Oh Fuck

Did you think that Pakistan's government negotiating a deal with the Taliban to allow for Sharia law in exchange for "peace" in the Swat Valley was a good idea? Me neither. Despite the government telling the international media that all is well, Al-Jazeera English has footage of Buner being occupied by the Taliban (southeast of Swat and about 100km from Islamabad, map is here):

More troubling news from The Long War Journal is that the Taliban are continuing their march onward to Islamabad and areas which have nuclear facilities:

The Taliban advance on Mansehra and Haripur takes place at the same time they are moving on the districts of Swabi, Mardan, and Malakand. The takeover of these five districts would essentially cement the Taliban's control of the province.

The Taliban takeover of Haripur would put the Taliban on the doorstep of Islamabad and would also put two major nuclear facilities at risk.

Haripur borders the Margala Hills, a region in the Islamabad Capital Territory. Haripur also borders the Punjab districts of Attock and Rawalpindi.

Attock hosts two major nuclear facilities in Pakistan: the Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex and the Kamra (Minhas) Airbase. The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex host three sites where nuclear weapons and components are stored and assembled and aircraft and missiles are modified for use in nuclear attacks. The nearby Kamra Airbase is thought to host attack aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

Pakistan's military has been dispatched after some justifiable hand-wringing by SECSTATE Hillary Clinton. But, seeing how Pakistan's military advances against the Taliban have a history of being a dog-and-pony show to get more aid from us, it might be time to start shitting your pants.

Pakistan's Army Having Trouble in Battle with Taliban

This is video from an Al-Jazeera embed in northwestern Pakistan that shows Paki armor and troops being forced into retreat (it's near the end of the clip). Bill Roggio analyzes:

The Taliban drives off what appears to be a company or battalion-sized assault of Pakistani troops. Pakistani tanks race away from the fighting, and the Pakistani infantry moving in behind them does the same shortly afterward. The reporter describes the Pakistani troops as "clearly shaken" and the commander calls in for airstrikes, placing the civilians in the line of fire.

Keep this in mind when reading reports of successful Taliban operations in Swat. The military may be able to make short term gains, but the Taliban in Swat have repeatedly shown the ability to strike back and regain control of the region that is about 100 miles from the capital of Islamabad.

The great news just keeps coming!

The President is set to announce a new strategy that will more comprehensively engage Pakistan to defeat extremism. Seems like a good idea.

Logistics in Afghanistan Left High and Dry

Donkey transports through mountain passes might be what our troops are stuck with as troubling news comes out of Operation Enduring Freedom. The Paki Taliban destroyed a bridge used by NATO supply convoys in the Khyber Agency, closing the Pak-Afghan highway again. Also, the Kyrgyzstan air base at Manas has been shut down due to meddling by Putin. Hot Air explains:

Just two weeks after supposedly agreeing to expand supply lines into Afghanistan, Russia cut one of the more important supply lines available to NATO. Vladimir Putin gave Kyrgyzstan over $2 billion, and the Central Asian country not-so-coincidentally booted the US from their air base.

This will require some robust strategic and diplomatic solutions from our Commander-in-Chief, but he seems to be getting way too bogged down with federal interference in the economy to maintain standards of living that no one could afford in the first place. The problem with democracy is that people expect the President to be like the tooth fairy bringing them free goodies instead of a leader.

UAV Strike in Pakistan: Yes, We Can! (A PrO-Bama Post)

I support the President's Decision!

Word has leaked that two UAV strikes targeting Al-Qaeda militants have taken place inside Waziristan while Obama has been Commander-in-Chief. From Breitbart:

Missiles fired from a suspected U.S. spy plane killed seven people Friday on the Pakistan side of the Afghan border, a lawless region where al-Qaida militants are known to hide out, officials said.

The strike was the first on Pakistani territory since the inauguration of President Barrack Obama.

Pakistani leaders had expressed hope Obama would halt the attacks, more than 30 of which have been launched since the middle of last year, reportedly killing several senior militants.

The pro-U.S. government routinely protests them as a violation of the country's sovereignty, but most observers speculate it has an unwritten agreement allowing them to take place.

These intelligence-driven, cross-border airstrikes are authorized at the highest level of the chain of command, as seen during the strike in Syria last October, which killed a high-level Al-Qaeda facilitator. There will be some ostentatious criticism of these air strikes, and they alone will not be able to completely eliminate the terrorist presence in the lawless region of Northwestern Pakistan. But consider these facts before you rush off to go protest the President's decision to continue with this controversial strategy:

• The 36 UAV airstrikes in Pakistan during 2008 killed five senior Al-Qaeda leaders [Long War Journal]
• Trans-national militants based in the tribal areas are responsible for the deaths of hundreds of U.S. and allied troops and thousands of Afghan civilians [NYT]
• Pakistan's response was to the Mumbai massacre has been weak, and they even moved combat brigades from the Northwestern Provinces onto the border with India [Bloomberg]
• Pakistan continues to make deals with the Taliban despite that area of the country becoming extremely chaotic
• Newsweek warned that Pakistan was ground zero for jihadis back in 2007, and it has only gotten worse
• The Obama administration has vowed to aid Pakistan (like we did during the earthquake in 2005), but "hold them accountable for security in the border region with Afghanistan" [WhiteHouse.Gov]
• The governor of the Northwest Frontier Province continues a media campaign of lies and says that Afghanistan is really the problem (WTF!) [Tom Ricks]

Understand that I'm a huge critic of the Obama administration, primarily because I believe his economic policies are going to ruin the country and his followers creep me the fuck out. But this is national security we're talking about here! And I'm grateful that we have a leader who understands the importance of Operation Enduring Freedom and balances diplomacy and military assertion to keep the world safe from international terrorists.

Frankly, I was very surprised to see Michelle Malkin vying for Moran of The Day with this awful analysis of the situation which is a form of shameless partisanship:

Reader John has a few questions: “Where are the anti-war liberals? Where are the baby-killer signs? Why [aren't] the major media networks showing pictures of dead children as a result of Pres. Obama’s air strike?”

Hey, haven’t you heard? CHANGE HAS COME TO AMERICA.

IMHO, bipartisanship is no vice when it's a matter of us getting all killed.

Pakistan President's Gets Punk'd By Prank Call, Almost Starts a War with India

Not Fucking Funny

In a striking similarity to the Onion article where JFK gets let in on the Cuban Missile Crisis hoax, Pakistan scrambling its air force during the Mumbai attacks was the result of a prank call. From Fox News:

A man pretending to be India's foreign minister called Pakistan's president and talked in a "threatening" manner during the Mumbai terror attacks, prompting Pakistan to put its air force on high alert, a security official and a news report said Saturday.

Dawn newspaper said authorities were investigating the circumstances of the hoax, which occurred as tensions spiked between the nuclear-armed neighbors during the attacks.

The potential for nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India has reached dangerous new levels due to Mumbai, and the fact that some joker could push central Asia towards the Urdu version of Road Warrior is very troubling. That or Pakistan's Administration is playing games with the media to deflect attention from their involvement with the attacks, as India has suggested.

The real question is how does some random schmoe have the phone number directly to Pakistan's President? If anyone knows it, please call Mr. Zadari and tell him to properly secure the NATO convoy route through Peshawar. It is becoming extremely problematic as seen by 96 trucks bound for Afghanistan being set ablaze by militants.

Note: It's in bad taste to relate international tensions to that ass clown Ashton Kutcher, but in tough times all you can do is laugh uncomfortably at how fucked up everything is.

Indian Police Blame Laskhar-e-Taiba, Pak-Indian Tensions Getting Ugly

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

As the smoke clears from the abominable atrocities committed in Mumbai, speculation of how nations respond and whodunnit abound throughout the international media. Jules Crittenden has a pretty good round-up of what's being said, and, unsurprisingly, India's leadership is enraged. It's no secret that nuclear-armed Pakistan and India are not the greatest of friends, and reportedly the thugs responsible came from a terrorist group in Pakistan. From the Daily Mail:

One police officer said: ‘That, thankfully, never happened because we managed to stop them.’ Police insist that Kasab confessed to being a member of the Pakistani terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which has denied involvement in the carnage, and claimed he and the others were trained in the Muslim country.

Long War Journal has a pretty good synopsis of the Lashkar-e-Taiba:

Indian and US intelligence officials believe the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba was behind the attacks. The capture of Kasab, along with signals intelligence, and a satellite phone and GPS recovered by police indicate the group was behind the attack.

The Indian Mujahideen -- a front group for the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Harkat ul Jihad al Islami, and the Students Islamic Movement of India -- claimed responsibility for the attack. The Indian Mujahideen has been behind several mass-casualty terror attacks in India over the past two years.

Lashkar-e-Taiba has an extensive network in southern and Southeast Asia. A senior US military intelligence official described the group as "al Qaeda junior," as it has vast resources, an extensive network, and is able to carry out complex attacks throughout its area of operations. "If by some stroke of luck al Qaeda collapsed, LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) could step in and essentially take its place."

The relationship between al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba is complex, the official noted. "While Lashkar-e-Taiba is definitely subordinate to al Qaeda in many ways, it runs its own network and has its own command structure. The groups often train in each others' camps, and fight side by side in Afghanistan."

If this terrorist attack in Mumbai was backed by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, like the suicide bombing on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, the hostility between the nations will only get worse. There's also reports that Pakistani troops are being pulled from the northwestern tribal areas to be garrisoned along the Indian border. Pakistan's new democratic government deserves international support, but they have to be held accountable for allowing terrorism to fester inside their borders. A tough tightrope to walk for a nation like the U.S. A successful Indian entrepreneur writes in the WSJ that this is Obama's first international challenge. The stakes are incredibly high and the consequences for failed policy are enormous. I hope our next president doesn't let us down, because solutions to Pakistan's terrorist problem are not easy to come by.

From the mind of Barack Obama "I picked the wrong week to quit smoking!"

A Plea to Obama Regarding Afghanistan: Don't Be Ellis!

For those not familiar with '88 classic action movie, Die Hard, Ellis was the sleazebag who unsuccessfully tried to appease his terrorist captors to get an early release, but was shot in the head. A "Don't Be Ellis" plea was issued months ago to the newly formed Pakistani government regarding misguided negotiations with the Taliban insurgency in the FATA, and a similar plea is being issued to the President Elect today.

Granted, Operation Enduring Freedom is in need of a serious overhaul as enemy combatants continue to operate freely in the Pakistani tribal areas and violence has risen rapidly this year. But, according to the Washington Post, Obama might be leaning a bit too precipitously towards negotiations and reconciliation with the fanatics in the Taliban to end a long war in a quick fashion:

The incoming Obama administration plans to explore a more regional strategy to the war in Afghanistan -- including possible talks with Iran -- and looks favorably on the nascent dialogue between the Afghan government and "reconcilable" elements of the Taliban, according to Obama national security advisers.

This tactic of "reconciliation" worked well in Iraq, as Coalition Forces teamed up with Sahwa councils (many of whom were ex-insurgents) to give Al-Qaeda the boot. However, you get into an "apples and oranges" argument, because the Sunni insurgency in Iraq was largely motivated by power and money (which is easier to co-opt), while the Taliban are much more motivated by religious fanaticism. A look at Musa Qala, which fell under Taliban control in early 2007, demonstrates this fact. From The Long War Journal:

Four Afghan men are hanged for allegedly spying for American forces. Locals claim that the Taliban closed all of the schools in Musa Qala and force females to wear a burqa and be accompanied by a male relative when traveling in public; they also claim Taliban FM radio program airs during the day. A hefty Taliban tax has also been imposed on the impoverished citizens and tales of forced military conscription have merged.

Attempting to negotiate with a bunch of crazies may prove completely worthless, as Pakistan has learned the hard way. General Petraeus (CENTCOM Commander) has given subtle indication that some level of reconciliation would be a "positive step", but it is certainly unwise to make it the cornerstone of a new strategy in Afghanistan.

Obama also is considering talking with Iran to achieve some level of common goals in Afghanistan[WaPo]:

Obama said during the campaign that his administration would explore talks with countries such as Iran and Syria, rejecting bedrock Bush policy and rhetoric that some U.S. military officials believe may have outlived their usefulness.

Iran, on Afghanistan's western border, has played a mixed role over the years, at times indirectly cooperating with U.S. objectives and at times assisting the extremists.

It is true that the Iranian theocracy has a vested interest in keeping the bordering countries of Afghanistan and Iraq stabilized. But the past few years has shown that they are much more interested in fighting their holy war against The Great Satan. Whether it be using Hezbollah surrogates to murder our troops, shipping weapons to the Taliban, or deliberately undermining newly-formed democracies to make America look bad, the motivation for Iran's nefarious activities remains clear.

The President-Elect needs to weigh these options carefully and consider the consequences. As our Commander-in-Chief, we hope that he leads the world in stomping out the murderous brand of terrorism that has besieged civilization. But, we are deeply concerned that he may try to pander to the far-left base that is already banging on drums and proclaiming "war is over". These are tough times for our country, and we urge Obama not to cave-in to a quick fix like Ellis.

(x-posted at The Obacalypse)

Al-Masri Must Be Arabic for "Just Kill Me"

Recently, a top Al-Qaeda propaganda maestro was killed in by a UAV strike in North Waziristan [AFP]:

An Egyptian Al-Qaeda operative -- described by the United States as the terror network's propaganda chief -- was killed in a missile strike in Pakistan, security officials said on Saturday.

Abu Jihad al-Masri was among several rebels killed when two missiles fired by a suspected US spy drone hit a truck in the North Waziristan tribal region bordering Afghanistan on Friday night, they said.

This is Abu Jihad Al-Masri, not to be confused with Abu Khabab Al-Masri, the "Mad Scientist" of Al-Qaeda, who was killed in an airstrike in July. Then there was the commander Abu Saeed Al-Masri, shot dead by the Pakistani military in August. Also, don't forget Abu Obaidah Al-Masri, who died of natural causes. And then their is the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, Abu Ayub Al-Masri, who sucks at his job so bad that Zawahiri sent him a nasty letter, and even he has been confused for being dead or captured a couple of times.

Keeping up with all the permutations of "Al-Masri" in the "who's who of terrorism" can give someone a headache worse than trying to remember all the Chets at the yachting regatta. The name Al-Masri, which actually means The Egyptian in Arabic, can best be associated with the red-shirted extras on Star Trek for simplification purposes. They usually don't stick around for the next episode.

Pakistan: The Heart of Terror

Taliban Fighter in the FATA, Pakistan (from NYT)

President Bush announced today that more Marines (a battallion's worth which is ~500-1000) and more soldiers (a combat brigade which is ~2000-4000) are headed to Afghanistan later in the year as opposed to Iraq. This is a good strategy, as violence has been increasing in Afghanistan and declining in Iraq. But the prez sez that the major battlefield with Al-Qaeda is in Iraq:

Al Qaeda's leaders have repeatedly declared that Iraq is the central front of their war with America -- but it is not the only front. As al Qaeda faces increased pressure in Iraq, the terrorists are stepping up their efforts on the front where this struggle first began -- the nation of Afghanistan.

General Petraeus has similar thoughts in an interview today:

It is still assessed that Iraq is still viewed as the central front, if you will, for al-Qaida and extremism of that flavor.

Al-Qaeda (through Zawahiri) has indeed mentioned that the conquering of Iraq will help instill a caliphate extending all the way to Spain. But these are their ultimate goals in their bizarre ideology, and not necessarily a sign of their actual mainstream presence. A look at this extensive and profound NY Times Magazine shows where the true heart of terrorism lies in waiting. It's complicated by the fact that the Taliban exerts control of the tribal areas in northwestern Pakistan, some of the Pakistan's military appears to be in cahoots with the Taliban thugs, and the foreign jihadists share similar goals with the Taliban of de-stabilizing both Pakistan and Afghanistan. An anonymous tribal chieftain explains:

“There are many Arab fighters living in South Waziristan,” Jan told me. “Sometimes you see them in the town; you hear them speaking Arabic.

“But the important Arabs are not in the city,” he continued. “They are in the mountains.”

A frightening, but absolutely necessary read.